Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1518

   Mesoscale Discussion 1518
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

   Areas affected...Northern MO...Western IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

   Valid 030407Z - 030530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds will accompany convection as it
   propagates across northeast MO into western IL.

   DISCUSSION...Weak MCV has evolved within remnant convection that
   tracked across eastern KS into northwest MO, just east of Kansas
   City over Ray County. This feature may be partly responsible for
   organized squall line that currently extends from near Sedalia to
   Randolph County. Larger MCS appears to be evolving along the nose of
   LLJ which is forecast to translate downstream into central IL later
   tonight. This activity is currently propagating through the main
   instability axis which should continue to support robust updrafts,
   at least into extreme western IL before weaker buoyancy is
   encountered. Locally damaging winds are the primary concern with
   this cluster of storms.

   ..Darrow.. 07/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40009254 39819037 39179067 38599223 38549363 40009254