Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1517

   Mesoscale Discussion 1517
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0716 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

   Areas affected...The Texas Big Country

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463...

   Valid 060016Z - 060145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Occasional strong-severe gusts will be possible through
   about 02-03z.  Southward extension of WW 463 may need to be
   considered, but a new watch is not likely.

   DISCUSSION...Storm clusters continue to spread south-southwestward
   on convective outflow, into a remaining hot air mass with moderate
   buoyancy and very steep low-level lapse rates.  The storms will
   spread south of the current watch counties, with some southward
   expansion possible.  However, the storms will begin to move south of
   the somewhat richer moisture/larger buoyancy and should begin to
   weaken around 02-03z.  Thereafter, while gusty outflow winds will be
   possible, the weakening convection will result in weakening of the
   cold pool and associated severe-gust threat.

   ..Thompson.. 07/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32560082 32470024 32519963 32629882 32469863 32049864
               31649892 31509964 31440021 31520078 31710146 32080172
               32390187 32720186 32840168 32840132 32560082 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN