Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1517

   Mesoscale Discussion 1517
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0702 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498...

   Valid 030002Z - 030130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Convective threat will increase across northeast Kansas
   and northern Missouri this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Southern influence of central Plains short-wave trough
   is beginning to affect the lower MO Valley region. Height falls will
   glance northeast KS/northern MO this evening and this should
   encourage a gradual expansion of convection along/ahead of surface
   front. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to strengthen into northern MO
   in response to the approaching short wave. This is expected to aid a
   potential MCS that will sag southeast across a reservoir of strong
   buoyancy (3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Primary risk remains damaging winds.

   ..Darrow.. 07/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38509576 39829378 40179163 39689145 39149393 38139533
               38509576