Mesoscale Discussion 1514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 052200Z - 060000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored across the
Mid-Atlantic region. While isolated convection continues to develop,
watch issuance is possible if/when more consolidated clusters begin
to emerge.
DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour have depicted a slight
uptick in isolated to widely scattered convection from northern VA
into MD and central PA. Latest GOES imagery also depicts several
areas of building cumulus north of the Washington D.C. area along a
weak surface confluence axis. A recent 20 UTC sounding from KIAD
sampled a weakly capped, but buoyant, profile, which hints that
further thunderstorm development is possible within the next couple
of hours along the confluence axes.
Although MLCAPE sampled by the RAOB is less than depicted by recent
mesoanalyses, MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg likely exist
across northern VA into southeast PA and southern NJ based on
surface observations. Additionally, easterly low-level flow is
supporting around 20-25 knots of effective bulk shear, which may be
sufficient for semi-organized clusters capable of strong/severe
winds.
Although isolated convection is ongoing, it remains unclear
precisely when and where upscale growth will occur in the coming
hours before the onset of nocturnal cooling. A cluster of storms
near the State College, PA area may pose the best chance for upscale
growth/clustering in the next 1-2 hours and could pose a greater
severe wind threat downstream into central NJ. Elsewhere, confidence
is more limited if/when such clustering will occur. Trends will
continue to be monitored, and watch issuance may be needed if a more
focused wind threat emerges.
..Moore.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38247624 38007660 37877704 37887735 38007780 38167811
38417846 38667875 39017884 39337871 40347791 40597768
40787726 40877679 40907630 40847553 40707502 40557469
40297447 39987446 39607463 39267502 38967542 38617581
38247624
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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