Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1510

   Mesoscale Discussion 1510
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

   Areas affected...eastern South Carolina into central North Carolina
   and far south-central Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051753Z - 052100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts are possible through this afternoon
   across the central Carolinas into southern Virginia.

   DISCUSSION...Storms formed quickly near the SC sea breeze, and where
   a very moist and unstable air mass was already in place this morning
   per 12Z CHS sounding. MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg also extends
   northward across much of NC, where temperatures continue to rise
   near a weak pressure trough. Additional storms could redevelop
   northward as outflows are produced.

   North of the existing sea breeze storms, additional clusters are
   evident, and some of this activity may gain localized severe wind
   potential over the next few hours as they move with an eastward
   component toward increasing DCAPE.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   33658127 34948026 36107984 36957950 37027901 37137809
               37007773 36737772 36047803 34127885 33547912 33287950
               32857993 32588078 32948126 33658127 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH