Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1504

   Mesoscale Discussion 1504
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0555 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle and South Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458...

   Valid 042255Z - 050000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe outflow gust threat will remain
   focused along a combined front/outflow across the Texas Panhandle,
   with the potential to clear the watch early into the South Plains.

   DISCUSSION...Storm development has remained confined to the surface
   front which has been reinforced by outflow across the TX Panhandle,
   immediately north-through-northeast of Amarillo.  The richer
   low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy is confined to this same
   zone, where deep-layer northwesterly shear is allowing storms with
   supercell structure to develop west-southwestward along the
   boundary.  Farther south, moisture and temperatures are reduced
   beneath substantial anvil shading from the convection in eastern NM.
    The potential for additional storm development into the South
   Plains appears questionable, and this portion of the watch could be
   cleared well before watch expiration.

   ..Thompson.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35880139 36050070 36200019 35980007 35670048 35400110
               35310161 35260201 35390220 35610225 35710200 35880139 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN