US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1504

2024-07-01 17:16:02

   Mesoscale Discussion 1504
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

   Areas affected...southern Nebraska and northern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 012024Z - 012230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage to increase in coverage through the
   afternoon. All hazards will be possible including damaging winds,
   large hail, and a tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...A surface warm front is slowly lifting northward across
   northern Kansas into southern Nebraska this afternoon. The
   progression of this feature has lagged morning operational guidance,
   with widespread cloud cover and cooler temperatures continuing
   across much of central/northern Nebraska. Upstream of this region, a
   shortwave is tracking eastward along with an attendant southeastward
   sinking cold front. 

   In the last hour, thunderstorms have developed near the dryline/warm
   front intersection near the NE/KS western border between these
   boundaries which is characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s
   to 80s with MLCAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear around
   40-50 kts is observed in surface objective analysis which will
   support discrete to semi-discrete supercell development ahead of the
   cold front, with potential for a tornado or two with cells near the
   lifting warm front where low-level vorticity can be maximized amid
   backed east to southeasterly low-level flow. With time, mode will
   likely shift to become more linear, posing an increasing threat for
   damaging wind, with potentially some significant 75+ mph, through
   the evening. A watch will be needed to cover this threat.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/01/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41329844 40999729 40759731 40049788 39259849 39630090
               39750178 40090195 41290208 41490155 41490084 41329844 

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