2024-07-01 17:16:02
1719869116
Mesoscale Discussion 1504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024
Areas affected...southern Nebraska and northern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 012024Z - 012230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage to increase in coverage through the
afternoon. All hazards will be possible including damaging winds,
large hail, and a tornado or two.
DISCUSSION...A surface warm front is slowly lifting northward across
northern Kansas into southern Nebraska this afternoon. The
progression of this feature has lagged morning operational guidance,
with widespread cloud cover and cooler temperatures continuing
across much of central/northern Nebraska. Upstream of this region, a
shortwave is tracking eastward along with an attendant southeastward
sinking cold front.
In the last hour, thunderstorms have developed near the dryline/warm
front intersection near the NE/KS western border between these
boundaries which is characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s
to 80s with MLCAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear around
40-50 kts is observed in surface objective analysis which will
support discrete to semi-discrete supercell development ahead of the
cold front, with potential for a tornado or two with cells near the
lifting warm front where low-level vorticity can be maximized amid
backed east to southeasterly low-level flow. With time, mode will
likely shift to become more linear, posing an increasing threat for
damaging wind, with potentially some significant 75+ mph, through
the evening. A watch will be needed to cover this threat.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 41329844 40999729 40759731 40049788 39259849 39630090
39750178 40090195 41290208 41490155 41490084 41329844