Mesoscale Discussion 1499 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois and adjacent portions of Kentucky and Indiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454... Valid 042156Z - 050000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for severe winds will likely spread east into southern Illinois in the coming hours as a loosely organized MCS exits eastern Missouri. However, the need for downstream watch issuance is uncertain due to a very modest kinematic environment. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KLSX shows a loosely organized, and predominantly outflow dominant, MCS pushing eastward across eastern MO and into far western IL. Wind gusts over the past hour have mostly been in the 30-50 mph range, but velocity imagery continues to show embedded swaths of stronger winds capable of producing wind damage. Downstream, clustered convection continues to percolate across southern IL within the regional buoyancy maximum. However, regional VWPs continue to show very limited flow through much of the column, which is resulting in outflow-dominant convection with limited intensities. Consequently, confidence is limited that the ongoing MCS will pose a substantial and/or widespread wind threat downstream as it moves into southern IL. Similarly, the potential for downstream watch issuance is uncertain. That said, the favorable buoyancy will likely promote continued development along the leading outflow boundary with the potential for transient and localized swaths of strong (to perhaps severe) downburst winds through mid/late evening. ..Moore.. 07/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 37439086 37879032 38369004 38809003 39019001 39168962 39258758 39088732 38828725 38458728 38108745 37708781 37358833 37268853 37439086 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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