Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1495

   Mesoscale Discussion 1495
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Areas affected...central into eastern Missouri and far west-central
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454...

   Valid 041936Z - 042130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A small but long-lived storm/bow may continue to produce
   damaging winds from central Missouri toward the St. Louis vicinity
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...An eastward-moving storm complex persists this
   afternoon, producing areas of wind damage from west-central into
   central MO. This bow is now moving along a confluence zone which can
   be seen in surface obs and also by virtue of an east-west corridor
   of enhanced CU and isolated leading convection. The environment
   remains quite unstable from MO into southern IL, and daytime heating
   continues. The bow has fluctuated in intensity at times, as outflow
   pushes ahead of the system. However, portions of this system may
   regenerate and continue to produce periodic wind damage as the
   outflow surge continues east.

   ..Jewell.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37849095 37959289 38289272 38759299 39059039 38908985
               38618967 38068976 37909002 37849095 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN