Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1471

   Mesoscale Discussion 1471
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa
   and far northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 031952Z - 032145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is increasing across the
   mid-MO Valley vicinity. Storm development is possible by 22-23z.
   Large hail to 2.5 inches and damaging gusts to 80 mph will be the
   main hazards with storms late this afternoon and evening. A severe
   thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...Strong destabilization is occurring across southeast NE
   and vicinity near modifying outflow from prior convection. A swath
   of midlevel cumulus has developed over the past 1-2 hours. This
   indicates steep lapse rates and ample instability amid increasing
   ascent atop weakening MLCIN. An 18z RAOB from OAX showed nearly 4000
   J/kg MUCAPE with supercell wind profiles already present. Once
   capping erodes, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will
   likely quickly occur. Initial supercells will pose a risk of very
   large hail to near baseball size. Given large instability, damaging
   gusts are also possible. The risk for severe gusts may increase
   during the evening if upscale development occurs via sufficient
   storm clustering and outflow consolidation. While convective
   initiation timing remains a bit uncertain, it appears a severe
   thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   39989894 40689911 41779855 42199744 42329619 42249578
               41839545 41069508 40199544 39809603 39639722 39569808
               39649851 39989894 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN