Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1471

   Mesoscale Discussion 1471
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

   Areas affected...parts of southwestern and south central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 290651Z - 290845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated intense supercell may continue to pose a risk
   for large hail (up to 2+ inches in diameter) and potentially
   damaging wind gusts across and east-southeast of the Lexington
   vicinity through 2 to 3 AM CDT.  Thereafter, it seems probable that
   it will weaken.  Trends are being monitored, but a severe weather
   watch is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Forcing for recent intense, isolated supercell
   development to the east southeast of North Platte is unclear.  It
   appears focused within a corridor of higher boundary-layer moisture
   content supportive of sizable CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, along baroclinic
   zone where low-level warm advection may have become enhanced.  Aided
   by strong shear, radar data suggests that this cell has been
   producing severe hail, and this east-southeastward propagating cell
   may eventually pose a risk for locally strong surface gusts if it is
   maintained long enough.  However, based on the Rapid Refresh, the
   developing frontal zone is in the process of surging southward at a
   pace that may tend to undercut the storm and contribute to
   stabilizing trends within the next couple of hours.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 06/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   40960011 40999960 40869855 40479888 40610038 40760037
               40960011