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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1471

2024-06-29 02:52:06

Mesoscale Discussion 1471
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1471
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

   Areas of southwestern and south central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 290651Z - 290845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated intense supercell may continue to pose a risk
   for large hail (up to 2+ inches in diameter) and potentially
   damaging wind gusts across and east-southeast of the Lexington
   vicinity through 2 to 3 AM CDT.  Thereafter, it seems probable that
   it will weaken.  Trends are being monitored, but a severe weather
   watch is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Forcing for recent intense, isolated supercell
   development to the east southeast of North Platte is unclear.  It
   appears focused within a corridor of higher boundary-layer moisture
   content supportive of sizable CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, along baroclinic
   zone where low-level warm advection may have become enhanced.  Aided
   by strong shear, radar data suggests that this cell has been
   producing severe hail, and this east-southeastward propagating cell
   may eventually pose a risk for locally strong surface gusts if it is
   maintained long enough.  However, based on the Rapid Refresh, the
   developing frontal zone is in the process of surging southward at a
   pace that may tend to undercut the storm and contribute to
   stabilizing trends within the next couple of hours.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 06/29/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40960011 40999960 40869855 40479888 40610038 40760037

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