Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1470

   Mesoscale Discussion 1470
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...southwest Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447...

   Valid 031913Z - 032045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe band of storms over Lake Michigan will move
   eastward into southwest Lower Michigan over the next hour. The
   strongest wind gusts may approach 70-80 mph, and a swath of damaging
   gusts is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A small but strong bowing cluster of storms over Lake
   MI will continue to track east around 40 kt into southwest Lower MI
   over next hour or so. This activity produced several measured gusts
   in the 65-73 mph range near Chicago before moving over southern Lake
   MI. Since then, this area of convection has some some signs of
   increasing organization. The MKX VWP shows a band of 45-60 kt 3-6 km
   westerly flow in the wake of this convection, indicating some degree
   of organized rear-inflow. This should aid in continued organization
   and severe wind potential across southwest Lower MI in the short
   term.

   ..Leitman.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42848691 42868599 42708540 42308522 41728540 41748709
               41878754 42238752 42598737 42848691 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN