Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1464

   Mesoscale Discussion 1464
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest NE and northeast CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030726Z - 030930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to locally severe gusts are
   possible overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A band of storms has intensified early this morning
   from northeast CO into southwest NE. Model-based soundings suggest
   that this activity is based around 700 mb, with intensifying
   low-level southerly flow from the KGLD VWP indicative of a
   strengthening warm-advection regime. Steep midlevel lapse rates and
   MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg will result in a hail threat with
   the strongest updrafts, though modest deep-layer shear and a
   generally linear storm mode may temper this potential to some
   extent. Localized strong to severe gusts also cannot be ruled out,
   given the presence of a relatively dry boundary layer and potential
   for strong downdrafts. 

   Short-term guidance suggests that this band of storms will continue
   to move north-northeastward with time, with an isolated severe
   threat potentially spreading across the southern NE Panhandle and a
   larger portion of southwest NE.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40320402 40610380 41200351 41210236 41120049 40890009
               40439990 40209994 40020055 40100121 40250187 40470256
               40270370 40320402 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN