US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1464

   Mesoscale Discussion 1464
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 282224Z - 290000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/wind are possible this afternoon.
   Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not
   currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a pronounced
   baroclinic boundary that resides immediately ahead of an approaching
   500 mb vort max along the ND/MT border region. Along this boundary,
   8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates are present, boosting the 0-3 km CAPE to
   over 150 J/kg in spots (per 22Z mesoanalysis). Given modest
   deep-layer shear, shorter-lived multicells capable of isolated
   instances of severe hail and wind are expected. If more dominant,
   cellular convection can anchor to the boundary for any appreciable
   period of time, a landspout tornado cannot be ruled out.
   Nonetheless, given how sparse and marginal the severe threat is
   expected to be, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   49080303 49200144 48740018 48239969 47709973 47360017
               47300058 47510127 47960196 49080303 

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