Mesoscale Discussion 1464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024
Areas affected...portions of northern North Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 282224Z - 290000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail/wind are possible this afternoon.
Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not
currently expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are intensifying along a pronounced
baroclinic boundary that resides immediately ahead of an approaching
500 mb vort max along the ND/MT border region. Along this boundary,
8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates are present, boosting the 0-3 km CAPE to
over 150 J/kg in spots (per 22Z mesoanalysis). Given modest
deep-layer shear, shorter-lived multicells capable of isolated
instances of severe hail and wind are expected. If more dominant,
cellular convection can anchor to the boundary for any appreciable
period of time, a landspout tornado cannot be ruled out.
Nonetheless, given how sparse and marginal the severe threat is
expected to be, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 49080303 49200144 48740018 48239969 47709973 47360017
47300058 47510127 47960196 49080303