Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1459

   Mesoscale Discussion 1459
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0917 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Western and Central North Dakota...Western and
   Central South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441...

   Valid 030217Z - 030415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 441
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
   the western Dakotas late this evening. Severe wind gusts and hail
   will be the primary threats. Additional weather watch issuance is
   not expected to the east of WW 441.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a trough extending from
   near Rapid City north-northwestward into far eastern Montana. A
   moist airmass is located to the east of the trough over the western
   Dakotas, where dewpoints are mostly from the mid 50s to the mid 60s
   F. Because of this, an axis of moderate instability is analyzed by
   the RAP over the western Dakotas where MLCAPE is generally between
   1500 to 3000 J/kg. Scattered storms, associated with a wind-damage
   and isolated large hail threat, are ongoing within this corridor of
   moderate instability. The storms are being supported by a subtle
   shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery. As the storms move
   eastward into weaker instability over the central Dakotas late this
   evening, the severe threat is expected to become more isolated. For
   this reason, additional weather watch issuance not expected.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

   LAT...LON   44600120 44880044 45390012 46250018 48080083 48830130
               49130218 49030350 48700406 47760393 46280332 45000265
               44630205 44600120 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN