Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1455

   Mesoscale Discussion 1455
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0713 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Far northeast New York into northern Vermont...New
   Hampshire...and western Maine

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030013Z - 030215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms cross the international border may
   pose a damaging wind threat in the coming hours across portions of
   the Northeast. Watch issuance is not likely, however.

   DISCUSSION...Latest MRMS mosaics show a broken band of storms
   migrating eastward across southern Quebec and beginning to
   cross/approach the international border. Velocity data from CASBV
   shows some pockets of stronger winds, but an outflow boundary is
   also noted emanating from the southwestern flank of the band. This
   suggests that while some swaths of strong/damaging winds are
   possible in the near term, the near-storm environment is not
   favorable for additional development. Furthermore, GOES IR imagery
   has shown some degree of cloud-top warming over the past hour,
   suggesting a slight weakening trend. Nonetheless, recent RAP
   mesoanalysis depicts 30-40 knots of effective shear and around 1500
   J/kg MLCAPE across the region that may support these bands for the
   next couple of hours. Based on the aforementioned velocity
   observations, some threat for damaging winds will likely accompany
   these storms. With time, nocturnal cooling will promote increasing
   inhibition and will act as a modulating factor for thunderstorm
   intensity, which should limit the overall severe risk and negate the
   need for a watch.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

   LAT...LON   44467370 44777398 45027405 45047272 45027166 45557086
               45777040 45666970 45356941 44916965 44467007 44167089
               44087158 44077235 44197313 44467370 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN