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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1455

Mesoscale Discussion 1455
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1455
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0811 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota into central South

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478...

   Valid 280111Z - 280245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 478. Severe gusts are the main threat, though a QLCS tornado
   remains possible.

   DISCUSSION...A mature MCS with a history of several severe gusts
   (some of which were measured in the 80-90 mph range per surface
   observations) continues across western ND/SD. The most recent
   significant-severe gusts have occurred within mesovortices across
   southwestern ND, where a QLCS tornado also remains possible.
   However, 00Z mesoanalysis depicts 0-3 km lapse rates rapidly
   decreasing over ND with east extent, but with 6 C/km 0-3 km lapse
   rates present over a wider corridor in SD. As such, severe gust
   potential (including peak 75-85 mph gusts) will be greatest over
   southern ND into northern SD for at least a few more hours.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43880095 46560203 48050262 48430262 48500119 47920019
               46599945 45239914 44329928 43799998 43880095 

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