MD 1451 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437… FOR CENTRAL TO EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026
Areas affected...Central to eastern Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437...
Valid 022242Z - 030045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail will likely persist for another
1-2 hours across central Iowa. Some hail threat may manifest across
eastern Iowa and possibly northwest Illinois through the evening.
DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storm development continues across
central IA where modest 925-850 mb flow continues to overrun a
sagging outflow boundary draped across the state. Based on MRMS VII
imagery, several of these cores have at least briefly intensified to
severe levels (with occasional 1-inch hail reported) before becoming
displaced further north into the cold pool. Aloft, the passage of an
upper wave across the mid-MO River valley will likely maintain broad
scale ascent over the region and help maintain southerly flow into
the southern portion of the cold pool/outflow. Lifted indices on the
order of -8 to -10 C remain within the warm sector where updrafts
are originating, and deep-layer shear within the effective layer of
around 30-35 knots should maintain the potential for robust updrafts
and transient supercells at least for another couple of hours.
The primarily modulating factor for overall storm intensity will be
destructive storm interactions and rapid displacement to the cool
side of the boundary. With time, eastward propagation of the cold
pool may shift the primary corridor of severe hail potential
eastward into eastern IA and possibly as far east as northwest IL.
Trends will continue to be monitored, and local temporal extension
and/or expansion of WW 437 may be needed as we approach the 00 UTC
expiration time.
..Moore.. 07/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41399376 41519414 41729435 42149446 42419439 42699416
42759367 42709016 42628975 42398954 42148945 41828943
41528951 41428965 41399376
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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