Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1449

   Mesoscale Discussion 1449
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0510 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

   Valid 022210Z - 030015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for severe wind gusts should increase across
   southern Wisconsin over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...The development of a consolidated cold pool has become
   evident in velocity data from KARX and KMKX over the past hour. This
   appears to confirm the expected mode transition from broken cells to
   a more cohesive convective band/MCS. Downstream, the environment
   across southern WI is favorable for MCS maintenance with a pocket of
   2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective bulk shear in
   place per recent mesoanalyses and regional VWPs. Based on this
   parameter space, maximum wind speeds within the MCS may be as high
   as 65-75 mph (a recent 62 mph gust was noted at KLNR with the
   passage of the line). This threat appears most likely to manifest
   roughly along and just south of the I-94 corridor. 20 knot 0-3 km
   bulk shear vectors noted in regional VWPs are oriented roughly
   orthogonal to the developing line, which may support some brief
   circulations as well.

   ..Moore.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   42589046 42789006 43078982 43318964 43478956 43558938
               43608772 43228779 43008782 42828774 42648772 42538775
               42498781 42489011 42509027 42589046 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN