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Mesoscale Discussion 1449 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico...southeastern Colorado...southwestern Kansas...and portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272147Z - 272315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms developing across portions of the central/southern High Plains region from southeastern Colorado/northeastern New Mexico northeastward into southwestern Kansas will pose increasing risk for locally severe wind gusts. WW may be required in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms gradually increasing in coverage from northeastern New Mexico and adjacent southeastern Colorado, to near of KTQX (Scott City, KS). The storms are occurring in a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer, where modest CAPE above the LCL is supporting a few stronger updrafts. The development appears to be occurring in part due to response of the environment to a very subtle/mid-level disturbance moving eastward across southern Colorado at this time. While a more unstable airmass -- and thus potential for more robust convection -- exists farther north, into northwestern Kansas and points north, the deep/dry boundary layer will promote potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts, and associated potential for severe-caliber gusts locally. We will continue to monitor this region in the short term, for signs that risk may increase in coverage, which could support the need to consider WW issuance. ..Goss/Smith.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36450465 37650383 38540113 38819962 38329944 36900015 35810125 35800467 36450465 |
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