Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1448

   Mesoscale Discussion 1448
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Northern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 022205Z - 030000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for strong to severe downburst winds may
   increase over the next couple of hours if storm clustering can
   occur. While confidence is limited, watch issuance may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past half hour, GOES imagery has depicted an
   uptick in cumulus depth and intensity of ongoing convection across
   northern GA and adjacent portions of NC and SC. Some of this
   activity appears to be driven by residual outflow from prior
   convection, hinting that low-level forcing for ascent may be
   sufficient for further intensification as storms move further into
   northern GA. Here, temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 90s
   with dewpoint depressions generally around 20-25 F and low-level
   lapse rates between 8 to 8.5 C/km. This environment is very
   favorable for intense downbursts capable of producing strong/severe
   wind gusts. The potential for such winds may increase as storms
   continue to propagate west/southwest into this environment. The wind
   threat may become somewhat more widespread if clustering can occur,
   which may necessitate watch issuance. However, given the relatively
   late onset of deeper convection in the diurnal heating cycle, it
   remains somewhat unclear how prolonged/prolific the wind threat will
   be. Nonetheless, trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34818294 34498254 34248228 34078223 33888230 33678265
               33528296 33478325 33438374 33438424 33538466 33668497
               33848521 34088532 34368542 34708545 34918543 35068526
               35148496 35168383 35148348 34998320 34818294 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN