Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1434

   Mesoscale Discussion 1434
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Northern Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 020538Z - 020745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms remain possible overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Strong storms over northern Lake Michigan are moving
   into northwest Lower MI as of 0535 UTC. This portion of Lower MI is
   generally north of remnant outflow, with temperatures in the upper
   60s to around 70 F (compared to around 80 F south of the boundary).
   However, relatively rich low-level moisture is helping to maintain
   MUCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg early this morning, with moderate
   deep-layer flow/shear (observed on the KAPX VWP) supporting some
   organized-storm potential. 

   The small storm cluster approaching northwest Lower MI may persist
   into at least north-central Lower MI overnight. Damaging-wind
   potential will accompany this cluster, though near-surface stability
   may mitigate this threat to some extent. Other discrete convection
   developing in advance of this cluster could pose a threat of
   localized wind damage and isolated hail, if these storms are able to
   mature. 

   Given the somewhat elevated nature of ongoing convection, the
   magnitude of the wind threat is uncertain, but trends will be
   monitored for increasing wind-damage potential and possible watch
   issuance.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   44908645 45368527 45318398 45038347 44418343 43778377
               43878594 44078658 44278671 44908645 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN