Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1428

   Mesoscale Discussion 1428
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0605 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431...

   Valid 012305Z - 020100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for primarily damaging wind gusts continues
   across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431.

   DISCUSSION...Deep-layer easterly flow continues to support
   convective development along the western periphery of a consolidated
   cold pool across northwestern Mississippi, supporting the
   maintenance and westward propagation of an ongoing, loosely
   organized convective cluster that has produced several reports of
   damaging wind gusts over the past several hours. Expectation is for
   this activity to continue westward towards the Mississippi River
   though this evening. While the environment remains favorable for
   occasionally damaging downburst winds owing to strong buoyancy,
   steep low-level lapse rates, and high moisture content, gradual
   nocturnal low-level stabilization/cooling is expected to yield a
   gradual decrease in severe potential after 7-8 PM CDT.

   Farther southwest, a separate loosely organized cluster that
   previously developed across southern Louisiana continues to progress
   north-northwestward. Isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with
   this cluster, but the overall severe risk is anticipated to be lower
   owing to modestly weaker buoyancy across this area compared to
   farther northeast.

   ..Chalmers.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31659358 32049363 32999324 33859263 34589190 35119100
               35479002 35688904 35518861 35338850 35028858 34648890
               34238903 33728882 33428857 33148854 32688862 32458888
               32218954 31939043 31619128 31529199 31509292 31549342
               31659358 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN