Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1427

   Mesoscale Discussion 1427
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0540 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012240Z - 020015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms have
   developed across portions of southern New York, northeastern
   Pennsylvania, and northern New Jersey. These storms may pose a
   localized risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions
   of the Northeast to the south of ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   432 amid a hot, humid air mass. Weak effective shear and meager
   deep-layer flow (less than 25-30 kts sampled throughout the column
   by the BGM/ENX VWPs) will largely limit the potential for storm
   organization, but strong buoyancy, high moisture content, and
   modestly steep low-level lapse rates will support the potential for
   sporadic damaging wind gusts with stronger downbursts. Marginally
   severe hail may also occur with the strongest cores. The overall
   severe risk is generally expected to remain too isolated for watch
   issuance.

   A locally greater severe risk, primarily for damaging wind gusts,
   could materialize later this evening across the northern portions of
   the drawn area as an ongoing linear segment currently located north
   of Buffalo and modestly stronger mid/upper flow progress eastward.

   ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   41277655 41857670 42507655 42667608 42657515 42457407
               42227351 41957319 41407318 40667373 40317432 40147469
               40157519 40617610 41277655 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN