Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1416

   Mesoscale Discussion 1416
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...northern Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428...

   Valid 011605Z - 011730Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat across northern Michigan is
   increasing.

   DISCUSSION...The cluster of storms which produced severe wind gusts
   across eastern Wisconsin was sustained across Lake Michigan, albeit
   with lesser intensity, and has now produced an expansive cold pool
   which is moving across northern Michigan. The strongest storms have
   developed on the southern flank of this cold pool/outflow with these
   storms indicating moderate mid-level rotation. In addition, storms
   have developed along the frontal boundary across northern Michigan
   ahead of the storms farther west. Wind damage has been reported
   across parts of northwest Michigan and this portion of the line has
   since strengthened with a 43 knot wind gust measured at KTVC. Expect
   additional strengthening of the cold pool as it expands eastward
   into the afternoon into an increasingly unstable airmass with a
   continued damaging wind threat. Expect the stronger cores on the
   southern extent to maintain intensity as they move east and perhaps
   grow upscale into more of a bowing segment also. If this occurs,
   additional storms may eventually develop south of the current watch
   area and watch 428 may need to be locally expanded.

   ..Bentley.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43948681 45018639 45648510 45618384 45208322 44708317
               44118326 43748374 43588523 43548614 43548664 43948681 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN