Mesoscale Discussion 1404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0545 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 Areas affected...parts of western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425... Valid 302245Z - 010045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425 continues. SUMMARY...Substantive further intensification of an organizing cluster of storms appears possible into early evening, accompanied by a continuing risk for severe hail, and increasing potential to produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Based on mesoanalysis output, strongest continuing destabilization the past few hours has been focused across western Kansas, due to further boundary-layer heating and moisture advection. This is focused within deepening surface troughing, where veering from modest near-surface southeasterlies beneath 30-40 kt southwesterlies around 500 mb are contributing to sufficient shear for organized convective development. Rapid Refresh suggests at least some further strengthening of flow/shear are possible into early evening, in the presence of moderate to large potential instability. Aided by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection north of the Raton Ridge vicinity of southeastern Colorado, an organizing cluster of storms, including one evolving meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation has evolved. Although mid-levels remain warm, and the onset of boundary-layer cooling will result in increasing inhibition for boundary-layer parcels, the environment appears conducive to considerable further intensification of the ongoing cluster as it propagates north-northeastward into early evening. ..Kerr.. 06/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 38670195 39730129 39659888 38269977 37000097 36850164 37110206 38670195 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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