Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1345

   Mesoscale Discussion 1345
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0902 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southeastern  Colorado...southwestern
   Kansas and adjacent portions of the high plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...

   Valid 270202Z - 270400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of storms may organize further and
   become accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to
   severe gusts through 10-11 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to grow upscale within a
   narrow corridor of moderate to strong potential instability across
   the high plains.  Southeastward across southwestern Kansas into
   northwestern Oklahoma, this is focused along a remnant baroclinic
   zone associated with stronger differential daytime heating.  The
   boundary layer has begun to slowly cool either side of this
   baroclinic zone, and there appears at least subtle continuing
   warming associated with elevated mixed-layer air spreading east of
   the Rockies, contributing to increasing inhibition.  However,
   another weak short wave impulse on the southern fringe of the
   westerlies is slowly overspreading the Raton Mesa/ridging vicinity,
   which may suppress larger-scale mid-level height rise this evening. 

   Given favorable deep-layer shear, due to pronounced veering of
   low-level east-southeasterly flow to modest westerlies, there
   appears at least some potential for convection to organize further
   as it continues to consolidate.  This may be accompanied by a
   strengthening cold pool, which should tend to propagate
   east-southeastward along the low-level baroclinic zone.

   ..Kerr.. 06/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37960220 38430168 37119991 36620113 36980206 37560246
               37960220 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN