Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1325

   Mesoscale Discussion 1325
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0748 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas into northeastern
   Oklahoma and southwestern Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 392...

   Valid 260048Z - 260215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms may pose a low probability risk for
   large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of persistent thunderstorms remain ongoing
   across portions of southeastern Kansas as of 0040 UTC, with modest
   intensification noted with one of these cells over the past 30
   minutes. While greater low-level inhibition exists to the south in
   northeastern Oklahoma (owing to outflow from a prior convective
   cluster), latest objective analysis suggests that a corridor of
   minimal inhibition exists southeastward from this ongoing cluster
   into southwestern Missouri. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates
   (around 6 C/km), strong effective shear of 40+ kts may support a
   risk for isolated large hail with any stronger storm. A brief
   tornado also cannot be ruled out given increasingly
   clockwise-curved, low-level hodographs and effective SRH of 200-300+
   m2/s2. The gradual onset of nocturnal low-level
   cooling/stabilization lends uncertainty to the longevity of this
   potential risk, however.

   ..Chalmers.. 06/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36669528 36899580 37139610 37319623 37449619 37579600
               37639586 37749532 37669478 37439424 37139402 36859403
               36599453 36599492 36669528 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN