Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1317

   Mesoscale Discussion 1317
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 252152Z - 252215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercells with isolated wind damage,
   large hail and a brief tornado or two will be possible through about
   01z.  A severe thunderstorm watch is being issued soon.

   DISCUSSION...In tandem with a pronounced midlevel trough crossing
   the OH Valley, widely scattered thunderstorms have formed in a
   moderately unstable and uncapped warm sector from eastern OH into
   western/central PA.  Local VWPs show relatively straight hodographs
   with sufficient length for sustained supercells, and buoyancy should
   remain sufficient for severe storms for the next few hours where
   boundary-layer dewpoints are in the 60s.  Any tornado threat will
   likely be tied to local terrain influences and/or favorable storm
   interactions.  Thereafter, cooling surface temperatures and gradual
   stabilization should begin to lessen the threat.  A severe
   thunderstorm watch is being coordinated now with local NWS offices
   to reflect the severe-storm threat into this evening.

   ..Thompson/Mosier.. 06/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   39597991 39628053 39658109 39728144 39928163 40388178
               40858164 41258149 41548050 41517914 41247787 40987765
               40617757 40227796 39907869 39597991 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN