Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1311

   Mesoscale Discussion 1311
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

   Areas affected...southwest Kansas...the Oklahoma Panhandle and
   northwest Oklahoma...and the northern Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251856Z - 252130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of mainly large
   hail and damaging winds is expected to increase across the
   discussion area by 20-21Z. A localized corridor of tornado potential
   may materialize at that time in southwest Kansas into northwest OK,
   generally along and east of US 283.

   DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite indicate a deepening
   cumulus field over the central OK Panhandle, near Guymon.
   Mesoanalysis places that convection near a surface low, which is
   located along a front extending from southwest KS into the western
   Oklahoma Panhandle. That boundary delineates a hot, deeper-mixed
   boundary layer to the south across the northern TX Panhandle from a
   more moist and unstable air mass to the north in southwest KS.

   Continued daytime heating and resultant air mass destabilization
   should eventually support isolated to widely scattered, high-based 
   thunderstorms across the western 2/3rds of the OK and far northern
   TX Panhandles, near and to the immediate south of the frontal
   segment west of the surface low. The potential for strong
   evaporative cooling within the sub-cloud layer will support severe 
   wind gusts as the primary hazard with large hail also possible.

   Additional storms are anticipated from the vicinity of the surface
   low east along the frontal segment in southwest KS and northwest OK.
   That environment features a considerably more moist/low LCL
   boundary, which coincides with a zone of enhanced low-level and
   deep-layer shear, supportive of supercell storm modes capable of
   large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes, especially along and east of
   US 283.  

   Convective trends are being monitored in both regimes for a possible
   watch.

   ..Mead.. 06/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36780271 36930209 37940123 38129903 37669859 36759848
               35639984 35170111 35450242 35880286 36660301 36780271 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN