Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1283

   Mesoscale Discussion 1283
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...

   Valid 232331Z - 240030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail (including 2+ inch diameter and 75+
   mph gusts) will remain possible with the stronger, longer-lived
   storms over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple splitting and right-moving supercells have
   developed along a convective outflow boundary across the TX
   Panhandle over the past couple of hours. These storms have been
   accompanied by up to baseball sized hail per reports and MRMS mosaic
   MESH data. With over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 60+ kts of effective bulk
   shear present, supercells that remain discrete should continue to
   produce severe hail (some stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter)
   over the next few hours. A few severe gusts may also occur,
   especially where cold-pool mergers may take place.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33970075 33460101 33220114 33030141 32970193 32980230
               33370265 34180270 35030276 35420264 35570224 35490174
               35040111 34450078 33970075 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN