US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1283

   Mesoscale Discussion 1283
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0934 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

   Areas affected...Northwest MO into western/central IA and far
   southern MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...

   Valid 160234Z - 160400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421

   SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind may spread eastward

   DISCUSSION...The storm cluster that earlier produced a 52 kt wind
   gust in Falls City, NE has since shown signs of weakening over
   southwest IA, likely due to decreasing instability and increasing
   MLCINH. Despite the weakening trend, this cluster has a relatively
   well-established cold pool, and isolated damaging wind remains a
   possibility as it moves eastward tonight. 

   Farther north, an earlier storm cluster across northeast NE has
   weakened somewhat as the embedded supercell structures have
   dissipated. However, a small MCV appears to have formed out of this
   cluster, and the downstream environment into northwest IA remains
   somewhat more unstable and less capped compared to farther south.
   Some threat for damaging wind could spread across northwest IA and
   far southern MN with time tonight, though the need for additional
   watch issuance is uncertain and will depend on short-term convective

   ..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39949536 41099474 42299600 43099568 43719496 43769433
               43519353 42099336 41739336 41289328 40669370 40399386
               39929465 39949536 

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