Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1219

   Mesoscale Discussion 1219
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0829 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western into central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...359...

   Valid 210129Z - 210300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358, 359
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts exceeding 75 mph will remain a concern
   over the next few hours with a south-southeastward progressing MCS.

   DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate to the
   east-southeast across western KS, with a history of 60-100 mph wind
   gusts. The DDC 00Z observed sounding, which is well ahead of the
   MCS, depicts an elongated hodograph and over 50 kts of effective
   bulk shear, which should aid ongoing storms to sustain a bowing MCS
   structure. However, while the 00Z observed sounding shows 8.5+ C/km
   mid-level lapse rates preceding the MCS, a relatively
   neutral/slightly stable 850-700 mb layer may eventually encourage a
   weakening trend in the next few hours given nocturnal cooling. This
   trend is also suggested by the latest HRRR deterministic and WoFs
   ensemble runs. Until then though, severe gusts (a few potentially
   exceeding 75 mph) remain possible through at least 04Z.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38310205 38900009 39259896 39229818 38929748 38629729
               38239752 37949826 37699918 37630004 37650065 37780181
               38310205 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN