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Mesoscale Discussion 1219 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Nevada to central Idaho and far southwest Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092032Z - 092230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage through early evening across northeastern Nevada into Idaho and far southwest Montana. Sporadic hail and damaging to severe winds are possible, but this threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, widely scattered thunderstorms have developed across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies. GOES daytime RGB imagery shows multiple agitated cumulus fields from central NV into central ID as ascent overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level disturbance over central NV and a more prominent shortwave trough approaching the Cascades. Additionally, regional temperatures continue to generally rise into the low to mid 80s, which should be sufficient to erode any lingering inhibition. These trends suggest that additional thunderstorm development is likely within the next couple of hours. MRMS echo top and vertical ice data show that most cells have been relatively transient, but a few more robust updrafts have persisted across northern NV ahead of the mid-level disturbance. The KCBX VWP has recently sampled 25-35 knot winds between 5-6 km, suggesting that the better kinematic environment resides across northern NV to central ID. This region also has slightly better moisture content (GOES-estimated PWAT values between 0.8-1.0 inch) compared to the rest of the region. Consequently, storms developing in or migrating into this region may see the highest potential for large hail and severe wind given the better thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Severe wind may be the more probable of the two hazards given somewhat modest buoyancy profiles within the hail production layer and modest hodograph elongation compared to 8-9 C/km lapse rates from the surface to 3 km AGL and the increasing potential for storm interactions/upscale growth through early evening as additional convection develops. This idea appears to be well supported by high-res probabilistic hazard guidance, though the overall coverage of the severe threat should remain sufficiently low to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Gleason.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 41371360 40861412 40551495 40471560 40621614 41081654 41921675 42841648 43541601 44201527 44981389 45291283 45251228 44981195 44501159 43371172 41961298 41371360 |
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