Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1210

   Mesoscale Discussion 1210
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

   Areas affected...The Big Bend region of Florida into far southern
   Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201742Z - 201945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized corridor of higher wind potential may be
   emerging across the Big Bend region of Florida and into adjacent
   portions of far southern Georgia. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery shows steady deepening of
   incipient convection to the west of Tallahassee, FL that has
   developed within a weak low-level confluence zone. This activity may
   be influenced by a weak MCV noted in visible imagery and regional
   VWP observations across extreme southwest GA. Over the past hour,
   the KTLH VWP has shown a slight increase in 6 km winds that is
   supporting some hodograph elongation as the MCV passes to the north.
   Consequently, it appears plausible that a loosely organized
   convective band may emerge over the next 1-2 hours across the Big
   Bend region as convection continues to intensify. Further warming of
   the downstream environment will likely yield low-level lapse rates
   on the order of 7-8 C/km that should support some potential for
   damaging wind gusts over the next few hours. Despite this potential,
   the modest kinematic environment and a pocket of drier, less buoyant
   air far downstream across northern FL will likely limit the overall
   intensity, duration, and spatial extent of this threat and negate
   the need for watch issuance.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29738470 30078479 30278494 30428500 30578495 30648476
               30768283 30698258 30558243 30318246 29988258 29718287
               29658298 29608338 29878365 29998385 30068406 30038422
               29898439 29738470