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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1210

Mesoscale Discussion 1210
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1210
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0937 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Missouri Region

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399...

   Valid 090237Z - 090400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399

   SUMMARY...Convection will continue to develop and spread southeast
   this evening. Large hail is the greatest concern. New severe
   thunderstorm watch may be warranted soon across southeast Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Southwesterly low-level inflow (1km AGL) is gradually
   increasing across northeast OK into southeast KS/southwest MO.
   Scattered convection continues to increase along the northwest flank
   of the southern MO convection. Latest IR data suggests some
   thickening of mid-level convection over southeast KS but this
   activity has yet to deepen enough for lightning. 00z sounding from
   SGF was quite unstable with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg, very steep
   lapse rates, and high PW values. Latest thinking is new updrafts
   will continue to evolve across the western portions of ww399 then
   propagate southeast toward the MO/AR border. There is increasing
   confidence this northwest-southeast oriented corridor of convection
   may oscillate across this portion of the watch given expected new
   development over southeast KS/southwest MO.

   New severe thunderstorm watch may be issued for portions of
   southeast KS.

   ..Darrow.. 06/09/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38549480 37779021 36179019 36969482 38549480 

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