Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1202

   Mesoscale Discussion 1202
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

   Areas affected...Central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191931Z - 192130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A strong to severe downburst or two may occur across the
   central Florida Peninsula this afternoon. This threat will likely
   remain too isolated and transient to warrant watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...The early stages of convective development are well
   underway across the central FL Peninsula amid a combination of
   strong diurnal heating and weak low-level ascent along a confluence
   axis draped across the state. Recent surface observations show
   temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints
   remaining in the mid 70s. This is supporting a regional buoyancy
   maximum with MLCAPE values estimated to be around 3000 J/kg.
   Additionally, low-level lapse rates are steepest (7-8 C/km) across
   this region where daytime heating has been maximized. Meager
   deep-layer wind shear should promote mainly short-lived cells and
   loosely organized clusters, which will modulate the overall severe
   threat. However, thermodynamic conditions are most favorable for
   intense updrafts - as well as robust downdrafts capable of strong to
   severe (45-65 mph) wind gusts - across central and eastern portions
   of the state through early evening.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 06/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26598168 27318172 28108168 28518167 28658148 28688113
               28588060 28368050 28038047 27578026 27158008 26868003
               26558014 26328038 26218070 26178103 26238144 26398163
               26598168 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH