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Mesoscale Discussion 1202 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Colorado...extreme northeastern New Mexico...extreme southwestern Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle...far northern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081915Z - 082115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms this afternoon, with the greatest chance of storms occurring along a stationary boundary along the TX/OK Panhandles border area. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Upslope flow over the Raton Mesa is contributing to convective initiation, with additional storm development likely as strong surface heating continues along an west-east oriented baroclinic boundary situated near the TX/OK Panhandle border. Surface temperatures near this boundary are approaching 100 F amid 50-60 F surface dewpoints, resulting in the development of a deep boundary layer. RAP forecast soundings show classic inverted-V profiles extending up to 600 mb. 8+ C/km tropospheric lapse rates support thin CAPE profiles, from 600-200 mb, atop the deep boundary layer. Given relatively weak deep-layer shear, mainly pulse-cellular storms with dry microburst potential are expected, with the best chance of storms being along the baroclinic zone. Given the overall isolated coverage of thunderstorms and associated severe gust potential, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37220483 37460352 37390139 36980038 36340010 35890039 35750095 35840179 35920287 36070357 36390430 37220483 |
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