Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1200

   Mesoscale Discussion 1200
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

   Areas affected...Central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191827Z - 192100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of large
   hail and damaging wind gusts is expected to increase this afternoon.
   Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Despite boundary-layer dewpoints only in the mid 50s to
   around 60, the combination of daytime heating and cooling mid-level
   temperatures are contributing to air mass destabilization with
   MLCAPE expected to increase to 1000-1200 J/kg this afternoon. That
   destabilization process will support the southeastward advance of
   ongoing thunderstorms over the Red River Valley into the discussion
   area, with additional in-situ development also possible.

   Forecast soundings and the current KMPX VWP indicate strong
   mid/upper-level wind fields, with long straight-line hodographs
   forecast by mid to late afternoon. As such, the potential will exist
   for splitting supercells capable of large hail, potentially up to
   golf-ball size. There is some model signal that storms may merge
   into bowing structures by late afternoon or early evening, signaling
   an increase in damaging wind potential. The tendency for the
   low-level wind field to veer to a westerly direction with time is
   expected to limit low-level shear magnitudes and resultant tornado
   potential.

   Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   ..Mead/Hart.. 06/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46559420 46139245 45669152 45279111 44629120 44189168
               44119255 44539380 45159455 45869520 46099522 46099522
               46409491 46559420 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN