Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1195

   Mesoscale Discussion 1195
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0627 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191127Z - 191330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will be possible this morning across
   parts of southeast Georgia. The threat is expected to remain
   marginal, and weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A bowing line segment is currently located about 75
   statute miles to the west-northwest of the southeast Georgia coast.
   This line is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a
   shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of the line,
   surface dewpoints are in the mid 70s F, and the RAP shows an axis of
   moderate instability with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. In addition, the
   latest WSR-88D VWP at Charleston, South Carolina has moderate
   deep-layer shear with 55 knots of west-southwesterly flow around 1
   km above ground level. The strong wind field will support an
   isolated potential for severe wind gusts as the line moves
   east-southeastward toward the coast over the next couple of hours.

   ..Broyles/Gleason.. 06/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   32258228 32168292 31768329 31198318 30908271 30658148
               31068121 31798099 32258228 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH