Mesoscale Discussion 1195 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Areas affected...Northwest KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...397... Valid 072330Z - 080100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396, 397 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado will spread eastward this evening. DISCUSSION...A longer-lived supercell that earlier developed across southwest NE is currently moving into northwest KS, with additional development noted to its south along a surface confluence zone. Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) and favorable deep-layer shear (with effective shear of around 50 kt) will continue to support supercell potential into the early evening as convection spreads eastward. Large hail (possibly golfball to baseball size) may remain the most prominent severe hazard in the short term, given the supercell mode and favorable midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy, though isolated severe gusts will also be possible. In addition, some increase in low-level flow has been noted in the KUEX and KDDC VWP, with backed surface winds and some increase in low-level moisture noted downstream of the ongoing supercells. This could support a brief tornado threat as well. With the ongoing increase in storm coverage and some continued strengthening of the low-level jet expected this evening, some upscale growth of this storm cluster will be possible with time, which would potentially be accompanied by an increasing severe-wind threat. ..Dean.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39930065 39949970 39559902 39189904 38819969 38910107 39130135 39450099 39590091 39930065