Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1138

   Mesoscale Discussion 1138
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   Areas affected...western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141758Z - 141900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage to increase in coverage and
   intensity through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
   along and ahead of a cold front across the Lower Great Lakes. This
   activity will spread eastward with time into western New York. Cloud
   cover remains across much of New York state but a few breaks in the
   clouds to the south and west are allowing for some heating to occur.
   Strong deep layer shear is in place across much of the region. As
   further heating occurs in the downstream environment, lapse rates
   will steepen with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg spreading northward. This
   will be sufficient to support severe potential through the
   afternoon. The primary risk will be for damaging winds.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42137586 41997744 42017927 42077979 42247975 43277852
               44927502 44777352 44027354 43377412 42727492 42137586 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN