Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1138

   Mesoscale Discussion 1138
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0701 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

   Areas affected...Northern Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379...

   Valid 030001Z - 030130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across ww379.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed within low-level warm
   advection regime across eastern SD into southwest MN. This activity
   is maturing immediately ahead of a weak surface low that is forecast
   to track across eastern SD into northwest MN later this evening.
   Latest diagnostic data suggests MLCAPE is in excess of 2000 J/kg
   across this region and the environment remains amply sheared for
   organized updrafts. Large hail appears to be common with the most
   robust updrafts and this is the primary risk with storms this
   evening. Even so, a tornado or two can not be ruled out with the
   more discrete supercells, especially near the warm front where
   low-level shear is a bit stronger than the western half of the
   watch. Organized severe storms are expected to gradually spread into
   southwest MN over the next few hours.

   ..Darrow.. 06/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44810106 46009537 43989537 42790106 44810106