Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1131

   Mesoscale Discussion 1131
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0802 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

   Areas affected...ENortheast Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas...Northwest
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 330...

   Valid 140102Z - 140230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 330 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercell storms will persist this evening, while
   more widespread severe threat approaches from the northwest.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows three large supercell storms
   affecting the region.  One is in Kay county OK, one in Benton County
   AR, and one in Butler county KS.  All three storms have a history of
   large hail.  The KS storm has begun to weaken at it tracks away from
   the outflow boundary, while the other two cells remain anchored near
   the boundary and in a favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for
   occasional large hail and damaging winds.  The low-level jet will
   begin strengthening soon, which could also maintain/raise the risk
   of a tornado or two.

   A cluster of thunderstorms to the west of Wichita is also
   approaching this region, and is likely to congeal into a bowing line
   segment during the next 1-2 hours.  This would increase the risk of
   damaging winds through 04z.  However, there is uncertainty regarding
   how the westward-surging outflow from the Kay county supercell will
   affect this scenario.

   ..Hart.. 06/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37489734 37849618 36849576 36369368 35959358 35989456
               36429740 36919764 37489734 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN