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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1131

Mesoscale Discussion 1131
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1131
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

   Areas affected...The Trans Pecos into West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 022001Z - 022130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop within the next 1 to 2
   hours with a primary threat for large to very large hail. Severe
   wind gusts and a tornado or two are also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Towering cu have started to cluster over the Davis
   mountains with more robust storm development likely within the next
   1 to 2 hours. A very moist airmass is in place which has yielded
   strong to extreme instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Moderate
   shear (~40 knots) beneath a subtropical jet streak should support
   supercells with large to very large hail possible. Storm coverage is
   the greater question with higher confidence of a few supercells from
   the Davis Mountains southward. North of Fort Stockton, storm
   coverage may remain more sparse given the lack of cu along the
   dryline and separation from the forcing associated with the
   mid-level shortwave trough approaching the Texas Panhandle.
   Nonetheless, if any supercells form, they will pose a threat for
   large hail up to baseball sized, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29190390 30680361 31960297 32460241 32560073 32100031
               31250012 29590051 29120083 29560140 29690160 29710205
               29700240 29700258 29360273 29040285 28900306 28900338

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