Mesoscale Discussion 1122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Areas affected...far southeastern Nebraska...northeastern
Kansas...northwestern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 131849Z - 132045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Supercell potential to increase through the afternoon.
Large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening along a residual outflow boundary
extending southwest to northeast across northeastern Kansas. The 18z
RAOB from TOP (Topeka, KS) indicates inhibition has eroded. SPC
mesoanalysis data has indicated that instability is nudging
northward into eastern Kansas. This is confirmed in the 18z
sounding, with MLCAPE sampled around 2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is
around 40-50 kts. Though deep layer shear is fairly weak, presence
of the outflow boundary may locally enhance surface vorticity in the
short term. Initial mode will likely be supercelluar, with potential
for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado where mesoscale
features align.
Additional development is expected to the west along the cold front
this afternoon. Development along the front will likely be
suprecellular initially, posing a threat for large hail, damaging
wind, and a couple of tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale
with a damaging wind threat spreading eastward through the evening.
..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38919763 39389775 39819754 40319702 40369623 40189526
39609360 39039350 38139415 38179568 38639717 38919763
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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