Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1117

   Mesoscale Discussion 1117
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 130830Z - 131100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for large hail is expected to develop across
   parts of central and eastern Nebraska over the next couple of hours.
   Weather watch issuance may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
   imagery over the central High Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis
   of maximized low-level moisture is analyzed diagonally across Kansas
   from southeast to northwest. The RAP has MUCAPE along and to the
   north of this axis in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. As the trough
   moves into the central Plains over the next few hours, the
   instability max currently over far northern Kansas will shift
   northeastward into central and eastern Nebraska, where scattered
   thunderstorms are expected to initiate. RAP forecast soundings near
   the instability max have a capping inversion in the low-levels, with
   effective shear near 45 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8
   C/km. This environment will support a large hail threat with
   elevated supercells that develop early this morning. If a supercell
   can become dominant, then hailstones over 2 inches in diameter will
   be possible.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42239846 42059925 41759968 41199981 40789975 40589951
               40539915 40559849 40619761 40749647 41049608 41449601
               41889609 42189628 42409664 42439707 42379750 42239846 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN