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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1117

Mesoscale Discussion 1117
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1117
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0629 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

   Areas affected...West Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368...

   Valid 012329Z - 020130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 368

   SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to continue across parts of far
   west Texas over the next several hours. Large hail and severe wind
   gusts will be the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Midland
   shows a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms over far west
   Texas, with several embedded supercells. This cluster is located
   along the western edge of a strongly unstable airmass, where the RAP
   has MLCAPE estimated in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this
   airmass, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Midland has 0-6 km shear near 45
   knots. In addition, forecasts soundings across far west Texas early
   this evening have some directional shear in the low-levels with
   700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will favor
   supercells with large hail. The strongest of cells could produced
   hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter. The storms will
   gradually move eastward across far west Texas, and a severe threat
   will likely continue into the mid to late evening.

   ..Broyles.. 06/01/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32000272 31950381 31750431 31410451 31060449 30470390
               29590379 29140341 29200257 29580175 30150152 31190174
               31680207 32000272 

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