Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1065

   Mesoscale Discussion 1065
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

   Areas affected...north-central Minnesota and the vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 101735Z - 101930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is probable this
   afternoon across north-central Minnesota. Wind gusts and large hail
   are possible with the strongest storms.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway along a mostly
   meridional cold front draped along the western MN border. This
   vertical development is boosted by a shortwave impulse rotating
   through the broader cyclone aloft -- currently arcing through
   central SD -- evident in upper-level water vapor imagery. Diurnal
   heating amidst scattered cloudiness has yielded temperatures rising
   to around 80 F ahead of the front, and dewpoints in the mid-/upper-
   60s F. Per current mesoanalysis, this environment features
   negligible convective inhibition and CAPE values around 1500+ J/kg.

   During the next couple of hours, additional convection initiation
   and maturation is expected along and ahead of the front as it moves
   eastward into northern MN. Wind profiles are forecast to be mostly
   southerly, with strong upper-level flow inducing large cloud-bearing
   shear. While relatively modest low-level shear should limit the
   tornado threat with any discrete cells, the larger bulk shear will
   support a wind and large-hail threat with any stronger supercell
   structures.

   ..Flournoy/Mosier.. 06/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45979739 47389707 48609631 48679491 48249337 46989267
               45929297 45929297 45129516 45239691 45979739 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN