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Mesoscale Discussion 1065 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeast WY...western NE...eastern CO and far northeast NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 291818Z - 292015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorm activity this afternoon will be capable of gusty winds and hail approaching 1 inch diameter. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are starting to develop over higher terrain early this afternoon as strong heating overlaps with increasing large-scale ascent. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest with dewpoints generally in the 40s F near and immediately east of the I-25 corridor. Deep boundary-layer mixing is resulting in inverted-v type sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles, and steep low-level lapse rates greater than 9 C/km are noted in recent SPC Mesoanalysis data. This suggests storms moving off higher terrain into the adjacent high Plains may produce strong downdrafts and locally strong to severe gusts. Steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to further destabilization, with MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg expected. Vertical shear will remain weak, limiting longevity of stronger updrafts. Nevertheless, cool temperature aloft and steep lapse rates may support marginal hail with this initial convection. Initial severe potential closer to the I-25 corridor appears limited and a watch is not expected at this time. With time, somewhat greater boundary layer moisture will advect westward into far eastern CO/southwest NE/western KS. Severe potential may increase with eastward extent later this afternoon or evening, and this risk will be addressed in later MCDs. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... LAT...LON 40990545 41610556 42180495 42270444 42090386 41550342 40760321 36690301 36540325 36470381 36500434 36680473 36840474 39060512 40320541 40990545 |
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